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Course Outline

Challenges Faced by Forecasters

  • Customer demand planning
  • Investor uncertainty
  • Economic planning
  • Seasonal fluctuations in demand and utilization
  • Roles of risk and uncertainty

Time Series Methods

  • Moving average
  • Exponential smoothing
  • Extrapolation
  • Linear prediction
  • Trend estimation
  • Growth curve

Econometric Methods (Causal Methods)

  • Regression analysis using linear or non-linear regression
  • Autoregressive moving average (ARMA)
  • Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA)
  • Econometrics

Judgmental Methods

  • Surveys
  • Delphi method
  • Scenario building
  • Technology forecasting
  • Forecast by analogy

Simulation and Other Methods

  • Simulation
  • Prediction markets
  • Probabilistic forecasting and Ensemble forecasting
  • Reference class forecasting

Requirements

Proficient knowledge of Excel or other spreadsheet applications.

Strong foundation in mathematics and statistics.

 14 Hours

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Price per participant

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